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HOW TO PLAY

Two machines: Leverage (Coinbase) · Kalshi 15m · the honest odds

The idea

Every pull of the lever opens a position on the real crypto market and closes it before the reels stop shaking. You don't pick the bet — the machine does. Reel one picks which coin, reel two picks which way, reel three picks how much leverage. The market does the rest while you watch.

Prices stream live from Coinbase, tick by tick, straight into your browser: BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, LTC, AVAX, LINK.

Anatomy of a spin

  1. Pick a stake ($50, $100, $250, $500, $1000) and hit PULL.
  2. The coin reel lands first — your position opens that instant, filled at the real ask (longs) or bid (shorts).
  3. The direction (LONG / SHORT) and leverage reels lock in your terms (50× / 100× / 250× / 500× / 1000× / 5000×).
  4. Then the ride: a few seconds of live P&L. Take the money with CASH OUT, or let it ride to the auto-close.

Winning, losing, dying

Your P&L is the price move times your leverage times your stake. Wins are uncapped. Losses stop at your stake — your stake is your margin, and if the position falls 100% against you mid-ride, you are 💀 LIQUIDATED on the spot. At 5000× this happens a lot. That's not a bug; that's leverage.

Go broke and the 🏛️ SEC BAILOUT resets you to $10,000. It counts how many times you've needed it. It judges you.

As fair as a live market gets

Your fills cross the real bid/ask spread from Coinbase's order book — longs buy at the ask and sell at the bid, shorts the reverse. That spread is the only cost in the game. Everything a real exchange would also charge you is waived: no taker fees, no funding payments, no commission.

Two fairness mechanisms real exchanges use are built in. Liquidations are checked against the mark price — the midpoint of the book — so the spread alone can never wick you into liquidation; only actual price movement can. And leverage is capped per coin by live book quality, exactly like per-asset max leverage on a real venue: BTC's penny-wide book can land the full 5000×, while a wide book (AVAX on a quiet day) only lands multipliers whose spread cost stays under half your stake.

Sometimes the price doesn't move at all during your ride and you just pay the spread. That is also a real lesson about markets.

Kalshi mode

The second machine plays Kalshi's 15-minute crypto markets (KXBTC15M, KXETH15M). Each window asks one question: will BTC / ETH end the 15 minutes at or above where it started? A contract costs its price in cents and pays $1 if it's right, so a 40¢ contract pays 2.5×.

  1. The reels pick the coin, the call (▲ UP or ▼ DOWN) and the payout tier. Only bets priced in the fair bands can land: 2× coin flip (36–64¢), 3× underdog (29–35¢), 4× long shot (21–28¢), 1.5× favorite (65–79¢). Anything under 21¢ (over 5×) is not on the machine.
  2. The pull rests a bid at the book's mid, rounded to a cent and never touching the ask. For 8 seconds the machine watches Kalshi's real prints: if someone sells into your price (after the contracts already waiting at that price have traded) or the ask drops to meet you, you're FILLED.
  3. If not, 🔧 the lever jams: your stake comes back in full, no fee. You can re-pull, or take the ask instead and pay the taker fee.
  4. A filled ticket rides to the window's close, marked live to the book mid, and settles on Kalshi's actual published result.

No order is ever sent to Kalshi. Your play money lives in your browser; the only traffic is public market data, inbound.

The honest odds

From every trade on 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-29, 60 days, 1,423 events per coin, here is what $1 bought back on a mid-priced (36–64¢) contract, by how you bought it:

How you buyBTCETH
Rest a bid (maker)+0.7%[0.1, 1.3]+1.7%[0.7, 2.6]
Take the ask (taker)-4.0%[-4.6, -3.4]-4.9%[-5.8, -3.9]
Rest a bid at 65–79¢ (favorite)+1.3%[-1, 4]+2.2%[0, 5]
Bid, first 3 minutes+1.9%+2.3%

Return per $1 staked; brackets are 95% ranges. Taking the ask loses mostly to Kalshi's taker fee (0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract: 1.75¢ on a 50¢ contract, 3.5% of the stake). Resting bids pay no fee on these markets, which is why the machine rests one by default.

The catch: the maker numbers count only bids that filled. A newcomer's bid waits at the back of the line, and in a fast 15-minute market the bids that never fill are disproportionately the ones that would have won. Treat the plus sign as an upper bound; realistically a resting bid is about even. Cheap long shots (under 21¢) swing from big wins to big losses in the data, so the machine doesn't sell them. A coin-flip bet is still a coin flip: any one ticket loses about half the time.

The fine print

Paper money only. Nothing here is a trade, an investment, or advice — it's a slot machine wearing an exchange terminal costume. Your bankroll lives in your browser and never leaves it; the only thing that travels is the price feed, inbound.

PULL